Federal Debt Analysis
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2024 Election   Please Share with a swing voter. 10/16/24

 

 

2nd Time this Century US Managed its Way into Debt Problems
 

 

Historically, No-one Pays the Federal Debt, We Just Roll it Forward

Mom and Dad died in their late 80's. They didn't pay a penny on US debt..
Their Four Children, now all in their 80's, didn't pay a penny.
If politicians let the Fed Res roll debt forward slowly,
my brothers 8 kids, now in their 50's, will not pay a penny.

End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer
1940 52.4 No One
1950 94.1
1960 56.1
1970 37.6
1980 33.3 No One
1990 55.9
2000 58 TBD
2010 86.5
2020 120

 

Big Trouble Means Bid Debt

Once US Economy Shut Down for Covid, Economy was in Big Trouble

 

Federal Debt Analysis-21st Century
Obama continued the Bush policy
of fighting the Great Recession with one trillion dollars in debt
and by 2016 it was apparent that this policy
 had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.

Biden followed Trumps lead and they borrowed five trillion dollars
and by 1224 it was apparent that this policy
 had worked better than Bush/Obama policies.

Two Kinds of Federal Debt
1. Bonds/Notes pay interest to owners. 
2. Dollars pay no interest.
Transactions only occur in dollars, which the FED prints as needed.
Fed can print dollars, give to treasury to spend, all with no interest.

 

The hitch: If we spend lots in 2025-6,
the Fed Res may not be able to roll debt forward easily
as interest rates paid will go up lots,
keeping $ out of economy will be difficult,
and we could be in deep-doo-doo inflation.

See 2024 Deficit Analysis or  Candidate Tax Positions

 

US Federal Debt Began With War

 

FDR Used Debt to Feed People

 

Republicans Cut Taxes

 

Source The Long Story of U.S. Debt, From 1790 to 2011

 

Excess Money Printing Could Cause
Inflation Leading to Higher Interest Rates/Cost

 

They did it again for Covid Shutdown

 

Debt Cost Are Low

 
 

 

 
 

See  Should the Federal Debt be Paid  Please Share!
 

 
   

E. Recessions Also Caused Deficits and
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Image result for Federal Debt graphs

 

 

Is Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut an Exception
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed

 

 

I . Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly U.S. Government IOU's