70 Years of
Continuing
Wage Growth
"Stability and achievements being cumulative
means
young people of today will enjoy both past progress
and their own contributions.
Source:
US Economic Wellbeing
The Very Good
Many People are Moving Up the Income Ladder
proposed
“tip stealing” rule
which would allow employers to pocket the tips of their minimum
wage employees. It was stopped by Congress when they amending
the Fair Labor Standards Act.
Worker
annual gain was
$5.8 billion.
Affordable Care Act-ACL
Attempted to repeal the
Affordable Care Act-ACA.
Asked
the Supreme Court to rule the
ACA unconstitutional.
Weakened the ACA as part
the 2017 tax cut for corporations.
Workers losing Employer
Sponsored Insurance are not helped
into ACA insurance.
Losing ACA would hurt
workers with Employer
Sponsored Insurance
1. Large firms with no insurance would not be penalized.
2. Benefit caps for essential health services would return.
3. Individual out-of-pocket spending caps would return.
4. Child coverage until the age of 26 would slowly disappear.
5. Maternity coverage and free preventative care mandates would
slowly disappear.
6. Waiting periods limits would slowly be extended.
" The core problem is that
there aren't enough jobs.
If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs,
but then someone else won't get the jobs. "
"...the idea that you can just have better training
and then there are all these jobs,
all these places where there are shortages and
we just need the trained people is
fundamentally an evasion."
At large employers, it is now common for building maintenance, security,
kitchen,
laundry and custodial staff not to work directly for the company they report to.
Now the Trump administration has adopted a four-factor
test
to
assess whether an indirect employer is a joint employer that would bear
legal
responsibility for violations of minimum-wage and overtime regulations.
This is
a narrower standard for determining joint-employer status than the
practice
that existed under
the administration of President Barack Obama.
It expanded the
responsibilities of indirect employers in January 2016.
The International
Franchise Association (the largest organization representing
franchises
worldwide) argues that
the broader criteria previously in place
cost U.S. franchisees between $17 and $33
billion per
year.
bloomberg.com/opinion/
5.
Standards are discrimination
andarbitrary, but therehas to be a way
of deciding.
6. Whole
working class suffers and that those at thebottom
suffers most.
7.
Networking, the most successful job strategy,
is available to
everyone.
" All
America has been, more than anytime since the Great Depression,
subjected to aselection process that applies to all American
workers.
As there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs,
the standards for hiring keep getting tighter.
What
standards you ask?
Age, education, health, credit, social status,
religion, culture, race, ethnicity, …
Yes, all are discrimination, all are arbitrary;
but as
there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs there has to be a way
of deciding.
Universities do it, always have; there’s always
been a selection process.
Even during the Great Depression , if
you knew the right someone,
you could get a good job;
meritocracy be damned.
It is not at all as simple as ‘whitey’ has to
give ‘us’ some of what their getting;
it’s more that the whole
working class is suffering and that those at the bottom
suffer most.
And, this will continue unless major changes
are made to the economic model."
.
John Mueller's1995 statement concerning
Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better
the present gets,
the past gets better faster..."
Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in
them:
they are always back there somewhere.”
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a
good thing or not. 2. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously
distinctive.
3. Almost all students lose
interest in math and science.
Computers and experiments may
increase short term interest,
but they
also increase learning for a very few
by a very lot.
Generative AI, like computers, will increase education
variance.
Homework may
teach some to be more responsible,
but again it
also increase
learning for a very few by a very lot.
More money for teachers is usually good,
but
one of the best teachers I have
observed since 1950
was, by almost all measures,
a poor teacher.
Advise
Maximize all students reading ability.
Teach a little practical math to everyone
Get out of the way.
Federal Laws Have
Unintended Consequences
1962
President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws
permitting
the
unionization of public employees
1969
The Supreme Court,
in Tinker
v. Des Moines
Independent Community School District,
ruled that the Constitution forbids local schools from
suspending students who bring political protest inside the
schools.
In dissent Justice Black wrote:
In 1975
Goss v. Lopez,
the Court
ruled
in the case of
a suspended student,
a hearing was
required.
"Education
is a very lumpy investmentwhere
often there is
little or no payoff from having a little bit
more."
..."There are big returns to the first years of
education
(the education where one gains literacy) and
big payoffs to the last years of education
(a college or graduate degree where one
distinguishes oneself from the pack)
but only small payoffs to those years of
education
that move the individual from
somewhat below average to somewhat above
average." Sources
Only Germany
Does Not Use
College
as a Holding Pen
Associated With Education are Still Rewarded
Hours
Worked
Change
Change
in Average Earnings
Year
1988
2016
Bachelor’s
degrees
1,872
2,009
7%
$56,262 to $65,86 Top of Range Earn
17% More.
H.S. diploma
<1%
Other
workers
little change
Editor's Note:
Interesting, but since the price level used to
adjust for the change in the value of money over time is not
given,
I am not going to bet my life on this Earnings Data.
The
Official Poverty Measure fell
to 11.8%, the lowest since
11.7% in 2001.
This was the end of the 1990s expansion, and before
that, not since the late 1960s.
This data ignores
noncash benefits such as SNAP,
health benefits, and subsidized housing.
Such benefits have
grown 16 times faster than anti-poverty benefits counted as
income.
Full-time, full-year workers poverty
rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
For families headed by
married couples it, was 4.7%.
For those aged 18 to 64
who did not work it, was 29.7%.
For those headed by a single female it, was 24.9%.ety net benefits are excluded.
Female
full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the
1970s..
Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.
Everyone complains About High Taxes
They always have!
A
problem of high taxes
began when Western Massachusetts farmers
felt oppressed by a few elite
eastern merchants and politicians
who had set up the tax and legal systems to benefit themselves. See
1786_Shays_Tax Rebellion
Presidential Sanction
Against
Corporate Paying Little in Taxes
Limit "enforceability of private rights," and
"co-opting out of local law." Example:
Income sustainability
not checked, mortgage may not be enforceable. Source: Columbia Law School Professor Katharina Pistor
Everyone Gains from the Federal Debt
In the Good
Old Days, FED's Borrowed To Finance War.
Great Depression Began Barrowing To Fight a War on Poverty.
For CV-19 We Borrow to Help
State and Local Governments, Business, Unemployed, Education
...
You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.
It's value adjusts for inflation
What is worth will be based on what economy can produce.
States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen. You Might Not Get Your State
Retirement.
But,
Fed Debt Has
Inflation, Exchange Rate and
Interest Rate Risk.
Inflation usually follows printing too many
dollars.
The Economics of Debt
Debt increases
demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
Recently,
World Production Oversupply has Kept Inflation Low.
The Political Economy of Debt
By incurring debt states
trade an element of sovereignty – ability to the
electorate’s demands
for spending excepted to the political minefield of raising
taxes.
Beginning before WW1,the US has steadily gained the economic
clout
to maintain her economic sovereignty.
"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is
this: when it comes to financial crises,
we're not
in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces.
Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable.
Runaway private debtand the
resulting overcapacity
does a better job than
any other variable in explaining and predicting
financial crises.
It is our job to heed those danger
signs."
(Vague
2019, p. ix)Brief History of Doom
(INET)
has concise data summary
Video 14 min.
Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns
are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and
what is bought concerns many.
Postscript:
Historically, We Used Debt to Pay for 1. Revolutionary War 2. The Civil War 3. WW 1
4. Great Depression Poverty 5. WW 2 6. War on Poverty 7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse 8. To Protect all Sectors from CV's Economic Effect
Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters
Who Vote for Incumbents
Historically, the
U.S. Has Succeeded by Using Inflation and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.
People loved dot-coms, until
they didn’t. They loved credit default swaps, until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.
“When the music stops
for expanding liquidity, things
will be complicated." Chuck Prince on debt-fueled private equity deals before the Financial Crisis.
Many will say "who cares"
because they believe in Modern Monetary Policy
Changes to help Voters to Make
Appropriate Collective Long-term Choices
Pending
In response to Alexander Hamilton's desire for
national direct economic development,
John Madison foresaw a National Administrative State.
This would
damage Federalism by
claiming
national responsibility
currently belonging to state and local governments.
This would create and increase federal responsibilities.
By expanding federal limited powers, control would move
from the legislative branch to the
executive branch.
China - $952.6 billion -26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% in farming Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% in farming Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% in farming
France - $55.6 billion
-2.6% employed in agriculture Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion
--2.57%
employed in agriculture Spain - $42.8 billion
-4.31% employed in agriculture
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!
An example of the unintended consequences of
government support is increased Social Security
benefits paralleled
the decrease in the personal savings rate
Unconventional Statements Unemployment Checks are for a paid vacation
Trees cause 80% of air pollution
Unconventional Statements
Unemployment is 40%
CV-19 not a problem
See Fake News
1Claiming
Trumpisms are Lies
Regan's America
See
Conservatism vs. Progressivism 8p
Ebbing- Social Rights Movements: Women, Minorities, Gays Growing Christian Conservative Movement against feminism,
casual premarital sex and open homosexuality and wide spread drug
use. Think Cultural Wars Life style disruptions: Technology disrupted work places and homes-
Cable, CNN, Apple
Macintosh, HP printers, Motorola mobile phone
Trump's America New Social
Movements: Me Too, Black Lives Matter, Proud Boys Christian Conservative Movement: leads takeover of Supreme
Court Life style disruptions: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Amazon
Prime
Economy Booms Capitalism and Wealth in charge
Think
Neoliberal Economics,
Lifestyle of the Rich and Famous. Growth Highest in
± 3 decade, Unemployment down, Inflation
down,
Average Annual Income up 3.5%: top fifth = 9% middle class =1% and
bottom fifth -8%
Economy Tanks Capitalism and Wealth were in
charge: Think
Modern Monetary Theories minimalize deficits Top 1% vs. Fellowship
of the Deplorable
Five year
Great Depression rebound ends with Pandemic shutdown.
COVID hits low income earners hard, socialism rebound assistance
slowed by politics.
AIDS Ignored
Millions died
before society and medical profession significantly slow disease
COVID Ignored
thousands dead, medical professions offers much hope
Morning Again in
America
Voters decidedgovernment had gone
far: what federal aid programs should be cut, which civil rights
to limit and which to enlarge, which natural resources to
develop and which to protect
Country heading for a better future
Regan's divisive ideology was wrapped in a warm and
grandfatherly package
Keep America
Great
Voters
to decide
if Government Technocrats regain control and
Financial Technocrats
continue control began under Clinton. Country to encounter hard
times.
See
Storm Before the Calm2p
Generations and The Fourth Turning2p
Editor's Thoughts: Except got Academic Education,
US fiscal policy has been for less taxes for everyone
while infrastructure and other investments were ignored.
The best navy in Asia has 114 warships and
45,800 volunteer personnel. It's fleet has fast, powerful
destroyers, thoroughly modern diesel-electric attack
submarines, and amphibious ships that can haul tanks and
other ground forces. It can hunt submarines, square off
against invasion fleets, and shoot down enemy ballistic
missiles. Despite all of that firepower, this is not in fact
a navy at all, but an armed cohort of civil servants.
Japan Approves Record Defense Budget
of 5.3 Trillion Yen ..
Is
Trump's Trade War a Geopolitical War?
Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required
Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass
on China Trade Deal Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is
warranted.
Tom Friedman
agrees on the seriousness of the issues.
Parag Khanna
Google’s
pulling Huawei's Android
license is 'intimately
connected' to US-China trade war.
1. Because Trump's policy smears our
foreign policy establishment, bias concerning Trump's Foreign Policy is possible.
Read sources for opinions.
Of course Nixon ignored FP establishment.
2.
Trump is much like Reagan. Both knew little theory and few statistics. Reagan belied
that capitalism was just better than Communism. This led to conflicted Russian relations
as he called them and evil empire while getting along
with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.
Questions:
Why did the Americans know so little about Russia's
economic chaos? Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear? Is Trump being buddies
with Putin an attempt at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?
Some US Military Spending
Protects Europe But Trump Wants to
Go-It-Alone
Will Trump let them organize.
Where were Obama, Bush, Clinton?
Fewer Europeans Sacrifice
Is it time for Germany and France to Put Up or Shut Up?
4. Forgiving Student Loans?
Millennials Aren’t Drowning
in Student Debt
Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt
Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers
accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly
payments of less than $200).
B, Akers, Manhattan Inst
Benefits from
Forgiving Student Debts Student receiving loan relief reduced
their use of
credit cards resulting in
debt reduction by 26%.
They were 11% less likely to default
on other accounts.
Geographical mobility
increased, more changed jobs,
and income
increased by about $3000 over a three year.
NBER Working
Paper No. 25810. 6/19
M. Di Maggio,
A. Kalda,
V. Yaopurchase $5
Much of the
Debt is Held by Parents and Grandparents
Graduate Students Have the Highest Debt Per Borrower.
Hamiltonian Economics
which centering
on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's
presidency. Soon on
politicians battled
minimal state liberalism
(today's conservatism)
and
active state liberalism
(today's liberalism).
Public good expansion
began in Ernst in the 20th century. Today
Conservatives and Progressivesdo battle to control
federal spending.
would be highly progressive, probably reduce national
saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter
the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the
tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might
be ruled unconstitutional . It would be simpler to increase in
tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and
gift taxes.
US Has Lots
More Income, Spends a little more on Safety Net
Analysis:
While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
The French take long vacations and retire earlier, and
they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle,
and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally
distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:
proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It
is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more
comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only
per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working
time. less is better life expectancy more is better and
inequality less is better.
Europe is More
Socialistic
in Her Approach to Unemployment.
Will COVID Move
US Toward
European Unemployment Approach
Does US Have Enough Socialism?
Summary
Definition
Who Benefits from Most to Least
Problems
Concerns
Medicaid
Federal and State healthcare
tied to income.
Americans children, pregnant women, parents, seniors, and individuals
with disabilities.
Instability of income changes eligibility and resulting health care.
Multiple programs with both state and federal management
creates excessive cost and unequal coverage. Cost incurred by emergency
care passed on by hospitals to private insurers who pass it on to
consumers. Solution Medicare For All
is not acceptable to the electorate.
Medicare
Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same,
high income earners pay most
Required additional
health care
cost are
difficult for many
Longer life,
especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care,
will increases cost. Free causes poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, and higher deductibles
is not acceptable to the electorate.
Social Security
Retirement
income, partial at
62, max at 70,
Low income earners receive
a higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
Table 3
Deficit until
baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote. SS
Benefits are 100% Secure "42" "#CFTC">
Solution: later retirement
not acceptable to the electorate.
Projected negative cash flow could
add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
Employee sponsored
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
foreign corporations, inheritance
Table 2
Tax payers don't
appreciate
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution: Setting limits is
unacceptable to electorate.
Treating both inheritance and nonprofit donations as
taxable income is not acceptable to the electorate.
Editor's Solution:
1. Make employer
sponsored health programs over ten years with 1/55 the first year.
2/55 the second year, and 10/55 the third rear. 2. Make new born children from conception through year one
part of Medicare. Increase child's insurable age by a year until age
ten.
3. Resulting free market adjustments should determined program changes. Source:
Entitlements Require Political Action
Defining Socialism
8/14/21
1) 19th and 20th
Century
Utopian Socialism
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
These Planned Systems were either Communal or Authoritarian. Location: Eastern Europe.
All failed!
2. Post WW 2 Democratic Socialism
Government controls key industries such as utilities,
transportation and communications.
Stresses social Welfare.
Many older Americans still use this definition. Location: Western Europe
Current State:
Prediction:
Geography Enhances Social Stress will continues.
3) Current Mixed Economy Socialism
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and
access to less expensive higher education.
Makes capitalism more
humane, egalitarian, and more protective.
Location United States Concerns:
Geographically Limits Social Stress to cycles.
2. Biden
Increases Socialism.
Large public investments over the
next 10 years.
Much Government Spending minimized Covid's recession more than Great Recession
spending.
A Large expansion of health
care is short of the progressive Medicare for Al plans
A
$3.375 trillion tax increase over 10
year with most coming from the top
1%.
Source
3. Associate Socialism with
Totalitarian Communism Russia Confined wealth to party
members and by limiting wealth creation, had equality of poverty .
China created and distributed wealth with more market capitalism but
CPC fears of potential unrest create an uncertain future.
Globalization has
evolved the legal sphere of private actors
who can now pick and choose from legal systems of
England, New York state, and for corporate law you can add
Delaware.
The states is deeply involved in the creation of legal
privilege at every level of all markets. How private
parties use the coercive power to organize their private
affairs and bank on enforceability is instrumental to
understanding the financial crisis.
Protection of a property rights had been socialized.
Think late
20th century bank bailouts.
This is problematic because in most states the minority party
has about 40% of voters support.
This is especially true when state
primaries have success to a single winner.
Increasing Cavil Rights, Abortion, and Gun Control began the
movement of
conservatives into the Republican Party and liberal into the
Democratic Party.
?
Political Parties Began to
polarize
when
FDR kept control
of the Democratic Party by
excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
Roe v. Wade added fuel to the fire.
South became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.
Reagan sealed the breach and political polarity intensified.
The 1987
Communication IndustryFairness
Doctrine
was eliminated. Radio Stations were no
longer required to present contrasting views. Rush
Limbaugh,
who had popularized
conservative talk radio, now had
fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio andIdentity
Politics
Flourished. Conservative and
Liberal Polarization
Proliferate
4.
Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed multi-station company ownership
and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications
(now iHeart Media) owned over 800
US radio stations and
Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.
[3]
5.
Citizens United v. FEC Allowed
Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship
diversified,
which supported both
intended and
unintendedFake News.
Mohamed Ali
practically invented this 1960's genre
as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.
Larry Bird
and others soon followed.
High
conflict is
irresolvable and will continue even when the associated
problems are solvable.
Social Psychologist Peter T. Coleman's book,
“
The
Five Percent,states
that about 1 in every 20 conflicts are this way.
“Once we are drawn in, they take control,”
They enrage, trap frustrate, drain our energy/critical
resources, and will never go away.
A 2017surveyof
1,000 Americans found 40 percent of both Republicans
and Democrats thought the other party was downright evil.
Five to 15 percent of both parties would support some level
of violence
against their political opponents.
A minority of ‘... haters’ can have more influence than a
majority
In high conflict, our brains behave differently.
Fear, anger and hatred rule.
Sometimes anger can be useful.
It can support reconciliation, taking risks in peace
talks...
Hatred assumes the enemy is unchangeable, irredeemable, and
unimprovable.
They must be annihilate.
We can get the minority of haters to stop hating because
a peace message lowers Americas’ support for political
violence.
After Trump tweetedcondemnation
for the Charlottesville racist violence,
violence support dropped for partisan voters.
Joe Biden's similar peace message condemning
an Antifa attack
on a conservative journalist also lowered support for such
violence.
How to Reset
a Mind Set
An ingrained negativity bias leads to a perpetual sense of
crisis,
a feeling that things are getting worse—even when things are
getting better.
Source: The
Wall Street Journal
Personal Journey
More than five years ago I began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode
of attacks to post
WW 1 United States.
Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and
political power.
They received a more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by
women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.
White Christian middle class men and women were no longer
the center of society.
Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did
not exist.
Education would be the great equalizer. It could solve most
issues.
Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and
the Rust
Belt very
hard.
Result was, individual failure has continues.
Equal educational opportunity was not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally distributed.
Education Change was
needed.
Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and
professionals.
Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000
fostered technocrat control.
But,
too often they provided inadequate, bias, Information that
was
not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the real Fake
News.
It is more dangerous than the fake news coming from lies,
once called Yellow
Journalism,
and Propaganda.
The Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution followed
by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the
fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle
class white Christians.
Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back
to the beginning, to Great Society animosity.
Trump's election signified a new Populism.
It is much like our
other
20th Century Populism episodes.
Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy
raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our
ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the
King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a
forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving populist
issues to Millennials.
They must take control during what some consider a Fourth
Turning
source.
“Fifty Times Last Original Number NO
WAY!” Trump's
He claimed
Actual Unemployment was "42%"
Visit this Warning and Learns Why
Education
#2
U.S. Education Failures
Continue
Test Scores Stagnates
We are Falling as some countries score higher
Education is the Answer
Visit this Warning and Learns How/Why
Political Economy
Quantitative Misrepresentations from
Some Media, Economist, Politicians
A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation
in England
Source
author has a different interpretation of data.
UK's Hidden Wealth
indicates a smaller drop for those at the very top.
Wealth should include government required insurance.
Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net
Working Means Fewer
Benefits
States
Determine When Income is Too High to Receive
a Benefit
Family Size
100%
133%
138%
250%
1
$12,140
$16,146
$16,753
$30,350
$48,560
2
$16,460
$21,892
$22,715
$41,150
$65,840
3
$20,780
$27,637
$28,676
$51,950
$83,120
4
$25,100
$33,383
$34,638
$62,750
$100,400
5
$29,420
$39,129
$40,600
$73,550
$117,680
6
$33,470
$44,515
$46,189
$84,350
$133,880
7
$38,070
$50,633
$52,537
$95,150
$152,280
8
$42,380
$56,365
$58,484
$105,950
$169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320
for each additional person. Note:
Eligibility for premium tax credits in
coverage year 2019 is based on poverty
guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty
line.
"Last week, the Trump administration released its
2021 budget
requestwhich would cut Department of Education outlays by 8 percent while
proposing
dramatic change
in how federal school dollars are allocated."
Editor:
Switching to a block grant allotment of funds is
a good idea.
Give x dollars for an existing underfunded
y program
with no guidelines.
Just someone keeping an eye that it goes for y and not
football.
Think the
Brandeis Laboratories of democracy used to allocate
funds for all programs
and get the WW 2 approach to expert driven complicated
programs that can not be managed. Inspired by
In
1962,
President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting
the
unionization of public employees
1969
the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker
v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local
schools from suspending students who bring political protest inside
the schools.
In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:,
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of
state-supported schools,
kindergartens,
grammar schools, or high
schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep
their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a
new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered
by the judiciary."
In 1975
Goss
v. Lopez,
the Court ruled in
the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required. In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."
Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.
There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning
in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to
provide worker training. To some extent, this is already happening --
in 2017, according to
one report,
U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a
substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent
training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior).
Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more
companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the
publicly funded education system to do it for them.
Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely
regarded as having been successful in
Germany,
and with
evidence
suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education,
these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a
half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although
typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be
useful for
white-collar
jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor
has
been helping
set up apprenticeships.
2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International
Students Assessment
Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a
three-part test
has made a lot of money for a lot of people.
Business Week
2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last
modified."
New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design
companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies..
The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.
Product Line Expanded
"
More than 25 percent of public high
school seniors graduating last May
took at least one AP test."
2/15/19
Four companies that dominate the business
of making/scoring standardized tests.
"As
of 2011, Gaston Caperton, the president of
the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT, was
paid $1.3 million.
Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of
ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
The National Board on Educational Testing and
Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized
testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million."
huffingtonpost.com
Standardized test exists to
create a better life for young people.
But these tests hurt young people economically and
emotionally.
Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then
Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe
adversaries, seldom enemies.
5-5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive
Affected? When and How Will They Be
Affected?
In 2009,
the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel
ultra-wealthy ax dodges.
A battle
had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began
slashing the agency’s budget.
High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned
that the squad was conducting “the
audits from hell.”
In 2012 the
wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of
German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes
and penalties.
Then, after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS
abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.
Having to
battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.
"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you
paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a
Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay
off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting
investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra
withdrawals
by rapidly pumping assets in and out.
The Very Rich
Top 400 families have more wealth
than
bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as
bottom 80 percent.
Source
An 8% payroll tax increase
affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.
A women named Fuller paid a total of
$24.75 of payroll taxes
for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received
$22,888.92 in benefits.
Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent " Our preliminary estimate
is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
and roughly $800 billion in its first
decade.
source EPI
First
Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed
70 percent
marginal income tax rate on $10 million and over to finance her
Green New Deal
affects 16,000 people with income of $245 billion.
It wouldraise
$164-382 billion over
ten years.
Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it
could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000
households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the
millionaires."
Source
Another
Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50
million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an
estate tax.
A Trump proposal
requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the
official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used
to qualify for means-tested federal programs.
President Barack Obama’s
(failed) 2013
proposal to
apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people
were provided. Source:
Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of
the SS fund tried to do this.
2. Is Foreigners US Debt
Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, then Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.
When We Borrowed
1. Borrowing
Began With the Revolution
2. Mostly it was
War
3. Human Needs
Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.
Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the
Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's
austerity policies.
3.
Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed
Entitlements Pose a Problem
Summary
Definition
Who Benefits from Most to
Least
Problems
Concerns
Medicare
Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the
same, high income earners pay most
Required additional
health care cost difficult for many
Longer life especially for
poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases
cost. Free cases poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles
currently not acceptable to electorate.
Social Security
Retirement
income, partial at 62, max at 70,
Low income
earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and
spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
Table
3
Deficit
concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people
vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on
economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but
politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative
cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax
Expenditures
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
Employee sponsored
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
foreign corporations
Table 2
Tax payers don't
appreciate
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is
unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax
collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.
When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least
possible pain.
BUT After the
Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years
f
This chart
"...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty
rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not
using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U
would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5
to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0
percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to
match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even
more."Examples of noncash benefits
include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid,
and Medicare. See
SourceEditors Comments are
in red.
Work is Not Encouraged as Real
Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended
Consequence of Safety Net Increases?
"We hold these truths to be
self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator
with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights,
Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent
of the governed..."
Rights are natural. They preexist acts of
human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if
rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's
main purpose is to "secure these rights."
Human nature is permanent and statesmanship
is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord
with the nature of humans.
Progressivism:
Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that
is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the
understanding and directing of shaping forces.
Today's Conflict:
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives
want directing of society's shaping
forces.
Classical Liberalism
: the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct
from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty
primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now
called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.
New Deal Progressivism
of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A
Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding
government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to
providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights. Determining the final arbiter is
always contested. Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court
Managerial Progressives
of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government
operations from above and end the business cycles.
In response to Hamilton's desire for
national direction for economic development,
Madison foresaw an Administrative
state which would
damage Federalism by
claiming
responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and the resulting
increase in new
responsibilities. It would then expand its limited powers by moving power
from legislative branch to the
executive department.
The Judicial Supervision
Difficulties of Democracy
Counter
Majoritarian Difficulty
In U.S. Federalism, Governing
is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the
Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court
Declaration of Independence
Goal:
Secure Unalienable Rights
Affirmed
Natural Right of the Individuals
Implies
Democracy
Limits to
Majority Rule
United States Constitution
Purpose:
Define Constructed Rights of the Community
to Make
Laws the Majority Deems
Necessary and Proper.
Created Tension
Majority Rule
is Limited
and Moderated
by the Constitution
Joining a
community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court
must protect the natural rights of liberty.
The Legislature writes the laws,
the Executive administers laws
and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.
A.
Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the
diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between
1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and
Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from
Facebook but not for twitter.
B. Politically
“teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party
lines."
"This happened in the 1850s: We
know what happened..."
"Things...could get plenty bad..." with a
"...serious recession or the stock market..." crash.
"
and ... as a nation we are no
longer capable of making preparations for such
events."
There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion,
with Democrats
much more likely
than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.
This gap is even larger between liberal
Democrats
and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP
(27%)
Today’s
“partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v.
Wade,
said Michael Barone.
The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so
heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might
be at stake.
In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s
population
had already liberalized their abortion laws,
and America would have had different laws in
different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices
delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all
circumstances—
and the country’s defining wedge issue.
While public opinion on
cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on
abortion has
scarcely budged.”
It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally
moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”:
Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal
autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly
religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human
lives.”
Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed
it
because neither side believes it can afford any
compromise.
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee
battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.
U.S very good Geography that is
productive and well protected.
Economically Favorable
Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer
demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom,
Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work
force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic
regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable
demographic.
The others are "terminal countries."
Happening faster
because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations
with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were
interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.
But Obama did not
care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some
policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is
following a neoconservative policy.
US has forced an acceleration
of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration
accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain
rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China
will fall apart.
Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China is Japans
concern. Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis. Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one
except Russia, is a nuclear concern. Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South
Korean/Japanese worry.
U.S. Government Not Designed
for Governmental Grand
Strategies
a. Separation of powers
requires compromise.
b. Many want limited
government.
c. Private Sector Renewals
solve problems.
Recent Exception After WW
2
a. The 1946Long Telegram
described a very aggressive
Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year
multi-administration policy
of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War
ended peacefully
Containment Success a. Fragility of Soviet
economy and society caused
implosion from within.
b. China is very different.
Trump Would Say We Have a
Strategic Policy
1. National Security
Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy
issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense
Manufacturing Industry
issued mid 2018
US
Strategic Plan
Era of Strategic Engagement
Replaced by Strategic
Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and
one side backs down.
b. Competition is more
adversarial but no US guidelines given.
c. Rules to be determined
Washington's Latest Attitude
Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of
convergence of societies
difficult.
b. McCarthyism in U.S. and
Australia is not good
Foreign Policy.
Geopolitical Factors for
Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping
will resist any forces:
economic, social, political,
or foreign challenges to the
long-term survival of the
Communist Party.
b. Assistant Vice Premier
Li Keqiang,
a strong-man and long-time
party member, move toward
markets rankling some
politburo bureau members.
Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes
b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to
historical trends
c) Set a new direction
Recent Changes
a)
Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced to counter
China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy b) Ideological
Confidence has increased.
Opposition to
immigrants, globalization, and
establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction
spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of
disruptions to Europe/Western
Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused many to lash
out in a
tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1. Great power conflict has returned
to early Cold War levels
2
Declining world wide economic prosperity,
including the west Disruptions Could Last Years Axion
reports
#1,
#2,
#3 Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit,
or something else
would helpmoderate disruptions.
Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population
reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Source
Older
Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A.
Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to
Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese
bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"
New Plan
shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A
Expanded South China Sea Militarism B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched
and capitalized D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism
launch/participation in world-wide initiatives E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and
Djibouti F.
Military exercises with
Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this
is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global
Order
A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A.
Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying
historical trends Recent Changes
A. Enhanced
role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign
Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to
counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on
Communist theory over policy.
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a
national vision B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now
favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result
of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning
Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise.
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic
opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua
franca is
important C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global
Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing
international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition
international security
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a
complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and
shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more
fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge
System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US,
reacts
Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increasedeconomic
insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3) threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau
adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.
“the people” aredifferentially deployed by right and left and they
themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension
of populism.
Neoliberal Economic
Orthodoxies wrong,
A. Finance does affect real economy.
B. Finance system can falter.
C. Many economist wrong because of politics..
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through
Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by
investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual
Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an
increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics
apprehensive
E. Source: The New Financial
Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator?
video Democracy
Failures Caused Latest Popularism
Causes
1.
Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by
U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East wars
2.
Non-Liberal Democracy success,
especially China
3.
Poor Liberal Democracy Performance
Understanding Right and Left
Populism Right populism
defines "the people"
as those confronting an
external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism
2) refugees
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...
Left populism defines “the people” as
social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for
self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other Right
populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear
of
the stranger and apunitive state. Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures
believing insecurity and anxiety are
caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
workforce
casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.
German
recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase.
Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.
US Targets Varied
Racist Trend "White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan
(KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance,
and
skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."
Anti-Federalist Trend The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the
early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan.
Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation
were anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist”
lifestyle.
The “farm crises” of the 1980s, and rapid
cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and
environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive
movement, as well as its rapid growth.2
Fundamentalist Trend Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations,
merges religious fundamentalism with
traditional white supremacy
and racist tendencies.
It promotes ideas of nativism,
exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation
of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according
to primordial attributes.
The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud
Sprinzak published a paper o
n the irredentist Israeli
religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the
Faithful) entitled
“The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”6
Washington, London, Paris & Beijing Control
Africa's Financing & Building Infrastructure
Unfortunately, China
counters the trendaway
from coal.
Its Belt & Road Initiative is dotting unspoiled stretches of Central
Asia
with the most polluting kind of coal-fired power
stations.
A study by Global Energy Monitor cited by
Corporate Knights estimates that the countries
covered by the
Belt and Road initiative could
end up producing 66% of the world’s carbon
emissions by 2050.
That would increase their
current level of accounting for 28% of global
CO2 emissions and
would cancel out the rest of
the world’s efforts in restraining temperature
rises to 2 degrees Celsius.
Global electricity inequality is a tale of
two continents:
Asian convergence & African divergence.
In 1987, a former NASA scientist
was quoted in nearly all U.S. newspapers that by
2020 the world’s temperature would increase by
5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. The actual increase was
less than a single degree Fahrenheit.
In 1978, The Vermont Sun quoted
multiple scientists predicting that by 2020 the
Earth’s CO2 concentration would double from its then
current level of 330 parts per million. It actually
increased by only about 27% to 420.
In 2009, it was predicted that China would
decrease their CO2 emissions by 40 to 45% and
India by 20 to 25%. Instead their emissions have
increased in the past 11 years.
In 2008, Al Gore and most of his friends
predicted the snow on Mount Kilimanjaro would
have disappeared. There has been little
change at all in its snow cap.
In 1986, U.S. EPA predicted a two foot sea
level rise for Florida in 2020. It has risen
about one inch, a rate which has been
experienced for 800 years. An additional apparent
rise of 3 inches has been the result of land
subsidence.
In March of 2000 at Britain's Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research, scientist David
Parker told the English newspaper The
Independent that British children will soon
experience snow only virtually on the internet. When
it does snow 20 years hence (2020) it will cause
chaos due to its rarity. England has not been short
of normal snow.
In 2000 it was reported by the Tarawa, Kiribati
newspaper that a study by Greenpeace indicated that
Global Warming will ruin Pacific Island Nations
economies by 2020 with Tuvalu considered most
critical. Tuvalu’s 2019 budget report stated that
Tuvalu had enjoyed an unprecedented six consecutive
years of economic growth.
A secret Pentagon study in 2004 reported to
President Bush that climate change-caused resource
shortages may cause a global war by 2020. It said
that shortages of water and energy will become
increasingly harder to overcome plunging the planet
into war as it is carrying a higher population than
it can sustain. Enough said.
USA Today reported in 2013 that the
Arctic should be free of ice in the summer by 2020.
The prediction was off by 3.9 million square
kilometers, which was the amount of remaining ice in
September of 2020.
In 2009, The Los Angeles Times reported
from a number of government reports that it was
expected that all glaciers in Glacier National Park
would be gone by 2020. The Park officials posted
signs warning visitors that the end of glaciers in
the Park was near. In 2020 no glaciers were gone but
the signs were removed.
We were just talking about
the immensity of the task taken on by those of us who
correct the record on climate.
Last year they told us that Australians were doomed to a
future of drought and fiery punishment. Now
they're inundated with massive rainfall and floods Down
Under. Oliver Sawaya fled his home near
Sydney with his elderly father in a dinghy. He
said his property "looked as if you were in Sydney
Harbor and you were on a boat.”
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