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COVID-19 Latest News The Good and The Bad

See Our Sister Site What You Shoul Know About CV-19

Some Bad History

Some Good News

It looks like Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid shot stands up to those pesky new variants.
It showed a high ability to neutralize strains first detected in Brazil, the U.K. and South Africa.
While the lab study needs to be validated with real-world data, this offers reason for optimism. 3/7/21

Cases Up! For How Long? Will Deaths Follow?

We Followed the Wrong Projection

Some More Good News

1. CV evolves slowly so making neutralizing antibodies and vaccines have a better chance to succeed.
2. All of the recent reports support a solid B (antibody) and T cell immune response.
3. There are no documented reinfections.
4. Serious illness in kids is very rare!

Positive Cases Down

We Spend Lots to Moderate the Economic Pain

Three Weeks Up, a Turn, Will Return Be Quicker? 8/4/20

Editor: When confusion over counting deaths, this line could drop quickly.

Many Above U.S. but they are About Done!
Will We Move Up?

Headline News Leads With Deaths

Real Story: Big States Getting Better!

And Odds of Dying are Small

Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013 Jul 25

US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000.
How will we know it is over?
Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week.
Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. and
reported cases will, but it will be over. twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013…

Reopening and Memorial Day Upbends the Curve!

6/23/20

Second Waive Not as Strong.

US Deaths in the Middle

Fewer Patents are Dying

6/21/20 COVID Now a Political Issue

Will COVID Affect November

Editor's Comment: Minnesota data

Please Share!

6/20/20

Rural Hotspots Pushing Total Cases Up.

Deaths in Texas are Still Low But!

Reopening Costs Can Be Expensive.

Deaths Still Not Following Cases

6/19/20 Government Must Know
When to Hold and When to Fold

bloomberg

6/18/20

6/17/20

6/16/20

US Total Case Rate Has Not come Down.
Measurement Differences May Cause Higher Death Rate

6/12/20
Mike Milken

6/10/20

Editor: By 6/27, Texas and Arizona Were Worse, and Populous Florida was the big concern.

6/9/20 To Play Football or Not to Play Football, That is the Question

6/8/20

4th of July Social Distancing Should be Interesting
as adverse affects of state openings and nationwide protests
will become clearer.

Source: The Bonddad Blog

6/5/20

Total Patents in LTCF/NH would be an interesting number. Source

Trapped in a Poor Place

6/1/20 Death Report

bonddad.blogspot.com/ Great Blog!

Will Hotspots Develop?

Can We Find Them Quickly?

German Study of Scientists Against Coronavirus Hidden from the Public

5/31/20 Larry Summers on Virus, Hong Kong ..

5/29/20 US Needs to triple current testing level
according to prominent public-health doctors.
Six million tests/week needed to prevent CV spreading as we reopen.
Source: What We Know About Coronavirus Tests, Treatment and Vaccines

5/27/20 Good News
The Fatality Rate Being Overestimated?

CDC has finally attempted to estimate the death rate for COVID-19.
Under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26% or 2.6 in 1,000.
Non-nursing home fatality rate is 0.13% or 1.3 in 1,000. source

People Under 50 it is 1 in 5,000
People With symptoms 1 in 6,725

Almost all who die have underlying conditions.
Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident.

Where Will COVID 1.0 End?

Please Share

To Stay Open or To Reclose, that is the Question!

Only about 60% of states make hospitalization data available and the reporting can be lumpy, with data falling off on weekends and some states reporting a multi-day bolus of cases on a single day. To smooth out these trends, this view below looks at COVID hospitalizations by week

Important data for the evolving assessment of the health/economic implications of lifting the lockdown, including the likely rate of re-engagement of households and businesses...as well as the need for any course correction to ensure healthy re-openings. Scott Gottlieb, MD

5/21/20 To the extent people in the “reopened” States are engaging
in unsafe behavior, we should expect new infections to increase.
Nevertheless it is safe to say that nothing dramatic has
happened in the first three weeks of May. Source

Source

Covid-19 Quick Notes

More COVID Stuff:

Concise History

Economic Recovery Planning

Media Caused Hysteria?

COVID 19 Thought Experiment

What Comes Next

podcast

MLB Study And The Lockdown Dilemma

Paul Romer-Change in Approach

Peter Ziehan

What Comes Next

Webinar 2 is a must

Report

Webinar 1

Blogs

Test and Trace

Bonddad Blog

Pneumonia Beats COVID-9 by a Nose
Influenza Coming on in the Stretch

Mostly the Unhealthy Die
dbresearch.com/

95+Percnt of Deaths Had a Precondition
How Many Had >One?

But Others Suffer

Measuring Opportunity Cost Associated with Morality is Difficult

3 Cohorts Cost of Closing US Economy Cost of
Opening Economy

Possible Cost Other Cohort Variables Possible Cost

Grand Parents
in Care Virus, Death 1 grandparent has 3 preconditions Unchanged

4 Siblings
all working virus, unemployment, social distress,
lost self esteem, family abused,
suicide, virus death-very small all between 22 and 40
with no preconditions virus more likely,
death-small

8 grandchildren
all in school virus, family abuse, social distress,
education lost ages differ so affect/cost
per child would differ would students
spread virus

Sports Fans Have Hope!

Pennsylvania (12.8m population) more people have died of covid-19 aged over 100 years old than below the age of 45.
In total it is 41 deaths under the age of 45 versus 72 over the age of 100.
Most had preconditions.

US Reopening Position Getting Better

What is the "Sweden Model?" It's a Coronavirus management strategy led by Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist at Sweden's National Institute of Health. Sweden's government has closed universities and banned large public gatherings, but it has not ordered citizens to stay home or wear masks. Nor has it closed schools, gyms, bars or restaurants. The government has offered advice but hasn't imposed a lockdown.

The idea, according to Tegnell, is that a virus transmitted easily by people who show no symptoms of illness can't be contained by lockdowns and contact tracing. Only immunity can protect the broader population. Since there's no vaccine on the horizon, it's best to allow healthy people to become infected and develop natural immunity. He acknowledges that special care must be taken to protect those the virus is most likely to kill: the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

Deaths in Sweden: Sweden's approach to COVID-19 continues to be a source of intense controversy. Its government has not ordered citizens to stay home or wear masks. It has closed universities and banned large public gatherings, but it hasn't shuttered schools, bars or restaurants. The hope is that by allowing the virus to work its way through healthier people—even as precautions are taken for the elderly and people with underlying health problems—a large number of people will develop immunity. Thus, a future wave of the virus will kill far fewer people—leaving less human and economic damage in total. Is it working? On the one hand, more Swedes died in April than in any month in the past 27 years, and its death rate is much higher than in other Scandinavian countries. On the other, it has avoided the death tolls we've seen in Italy, France, Britain, and New York City, where lockdowns have been the rule. Whether there's a lesson here for other countries is another question.

Source

Success Reverses in
South Korea.

8/29/20 South Korea reimposes lockdowns: South Korea, , reinstated some lockdown restrictions this week after Seoul experienced its largest surge in COVID-19 cases in seven weeks. Museums and galleries will now be closed until at least June 14, while residents are advised not to gather for social events in the capital, home to half of South Korea's population of 51 million.

Is US Next?

Georgia on Or Minds?
Also rising in Texas and Alabama

Editor: Since 9/11 I have observed that the US has become more and more concerned with staying safe.

Fueled by the media and the Weather Channel in their search for profit, everything is a catastrophe.

"Have a good day" and Don't do anything I would not do" became "Stay Safe."

Now its becoming "Stay Save and Stay Healthy."

Osama ben Laden want to so self-doubt in America and I am afraid he has succeed. Thanks! Walter

Update

NYC Getting Closer to Flat

5/15

5/12

Fresh New virus outbreaks in South Korea and Germany after social distancing rules relaxed 5/9/20

US Worst Flues Death Analyzing

Pandemic Year Deaths P (m) Deaths /M P % died Deaths per 100,000
1 2 12 3 13

Spanish Flu 1918-19 675,000 103 6,553 103,000,000 0.0067 67

Asian Flu 1957-58 116,000 172 674 172.000,000 0.0007 7

Hong Kong Flu 1968-70 100,000 198 505 198,000,000 0.0005 5

COVID-19 2020-? 135,000 330 409 330,000. 000 0.0004 4

reuters.com/ provided data

Please Share Source

10 percent of the cases have occurred in long-term care facilities,
but they generated one-third of our Covid-19 deaths NY times 05/09/20

Editor's Note:
We are wealthier as a nation with long term care is covered by Medicare.
Is this a reason deaths are so high in the US? Was this discussed on Crossfire?

The 1957-8 Asian Flu pandemic was another global showing for influenza.
With its roots in China, the disease claimed more than 1 million lives. The virus that caused the pandemic was a blend of avian flu viruses.

The First Case of the Spanish Flu was most likely at a Kansas military base. Source

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that the disease spread rapidly and
was reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and the coastal cities
of the United States in the summer of 1957. The total death toll was more than 1.1 million
worldwide, with 116,000 deaths occurring in the United States.

Health Model Predictions Much Higher	Than This Mathematically Fit Prediction
3/3/20 Editorial: As Hot Spots Cool because of Lock Down, Opening Areas Must Minimize Deaths and Keep New Cases Within Hospitals Limits.

Testing Up-Positive Test Down	New Infections Flat	Deaths Flat

5/1 UK: There is increasing evidence that children may not pass the virus to adults.
While more evidence is needed, some experts have noted they have been
unable to find cases of child-to-adult transmission.
confirmation needed antonw@ix.netcom.com

Fatalities Indicates Individualized State Reopening Required
Data Through 4/28/20 Source

Deutsche Bank Research

Questions

4/21/20 Less Deadly Than Thought ?
A USC COVID-19 Testing Shows Many More Infected

Many New Vaccine Trials

The Good

The Bad:

Second Wave More Deadly?

Projecting the End! Optimistic Pessimistic?

ritholtz.com

Over 10 days to 4/16 the US deaths per million increased to 171 and this improved our ranking to 8th among countries with most cases.

Please Share

4/12/20 HME model death projections assuming full distancing through May. 4/2 about 93,531 4/5 about 82,000 with range of 49,431-136,401 4/7 about 60,415

4/7/20 Some Are Optimistic
summary of Crucial Facts About Covid-19
By J. D. Agresti 3/3120 Updated 4/6/20

1. Early indications are Covid-19 is “very vulnerable to antibody neutralization” meaning mutation ability is limited, it is very unlikely to return annually and a vaccine will not require annual updating.

2. Naturally acquired COVID 19 immunity, like those measles, mumps, rubella, and polio protects people who are very unlikely to transmit them to others.

3. Dr. Brett Giroir HHS has a best estimate mortality rate between 0.1% and 1%.” This “is likely more severe the typical flu rate of 0.1% to 0.15%, “but it’s certainly within the range.”

CDC: 4/5/20 reported

1. Likelihood of Exposure
330,891 Covid-19 cases US population is about 330 million

2. Current Infection Rate = 330,891/329,000,000 = .001003

With an incubation period of 2–14 days,
this very small infection rate will go just a little higher

3. Numbers of Deaths in Perspective

Roughly 12,469 people in the U.S. died from the swine flu over 4/12/09 to 4/10/10. Roughly 87% of these people were under the age of 65.
37,000 people in the U.S. have died from influenza (“the flu") each year. 170,000 people per year in the U.S. die from accidents.
Covid-19 deaths are 4.3% of these annual fatalities.

CV-19 Death Rates

Initial media reports of a 2–3% mortality rate for Covid-19 are inflated, and the actual figure may be closer to that of the flu, which has averaged about 0.15%over the past nine years in the United States. Editor's Note: As of 4/20 this lower death rate seems very plausible.