Immigration Issues

Immigration Policy Proposals       Immigration Analysis

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Proposals

Trump proposes domestic deportation

Harris proposes legislative fix

Specifics

 
relocating military troops to the US-Mexico border,
authorizing Immigration & Custom Enforce. raids of workplaces,
denying due process to unauthorized migrants,

constructing additional ICE detention facilities along the southern border,

overturning the Flores settlement providing protections for migrant children.

Military and National Guard used to round up and deport unauthorized migrants

source PIIE

Higher standard for asylum eligibility
asylum "protection determination" outside immigration courts
Increased detention capacity

Citizenship for Afghan allies

Increases to legal immigration

Funding for asylum officers, border patrol, and lawyers
 


Editor:
Priority action should be toward urban gangs with illegal immagrants.
Annual, renewable federal block grants to the smallest governing unit, i.e. cities, towns ...
Federal oversights should take a
Laboratories of Democracy approach.
 

Campaign Issues   Abortion   Deficits   Economy   Immigration   Social Security   Taxes 
      


Immigrant Analysis

2024 Brings a Stable Boarder

Cheap Labor

Tech Needs Highly Skilled Foreign Labor

Trump Likes a Busy Boarder

More Data
 

Unauthorized Immigration Continues Stable

2024 Boarder Returns to Normal?

Cheap Labor

Bush 2 changed Republicans attitude toward illegal immigrants.

Eight years of Obama helps immigrants, annoyed many Americans.

Trump looks the US illegal workforce to find illegal's, but numbers are very low.

Editor's Thoughts

Number of Immigrants increased and most Americans like the cheap
with no payroll tax labor.

Democrats began to see immigrants as future voters as Republicans,
but paid little attention.

No one cares that the illegal immigrant add to the unskilled labor supply,
which is keeping our seldom level minimum wage down.

US Recovery Leads the West

 

Immagrants are an Important Factor

 

 

Trump Liked a Noisy Boarder
 

Apprehensions Got Going in 2019

 

 

Image result for deportation statistics by year

Residents Arrested or Deported Increased

 

US Daca Recipients

 

 

Do we want fewer immigrants 
when it means less control over world business?

Workplace immigration inquiries quadruple Under Trump WSJ

but the number is so small and affecting  supply of workers enough
 to lower supply would be a monumental effort.

 

Great Recession Stalled Illegal Immigration

   

2023 Boarder Politics

 

 

More Data

 

January's decline in arrests for illegal crossings on the U.S. border with Mexico reflects how the numbers ebb and flow, and the reason usually goes beyond any single factor.

After a record-breaking number of encounters at the southern border in December, crossings dropped by half in January, authorities reported Tuesday. The largest decrease seen was in the Del Rio sector encompassing Eagle Pass, Texas, the main focus of Republican Governor Greg Abbott's recent border enforcement efforts. Mexico also increased enforcement efforts during that time after talks with U.S. President Joe Biden's administration.

A look at the numbers and what's behind them:

What do the numbers say?

Overall, arrests by border protection officers dropped in January by 50% from 249,735 in December, the highest monthly tally on record.

Tucson, Arizona, was again the busiest sector for illegal crossings with 50,565 arrests, down 37% from December, followed by San Diego. Arrests in the border protection’s Del Rio sector, which includes the city of Eagle Pass, plummeted 76% from December to 16,712, the lowest since December 2021. Arrests in Texas' Rio Grande Valley dropped 60% to 7,340, the lowest since July 2020.

A significant decrease was noted among Venezuelans, whose arrests dropped by 91% to 4,422 from 46,920. But those numbers could change soon. Panama reported that 36,001 migrants traversed the dangerous Darien Gap in January, up 46% from December. The vast majority who cross the Panamanian jungle are Venezuelans headed to the United States, with considerable numbers from Haiti, China, Ecuador and Colombia.

 

What is Mexico doing?

Mexico has been forcing migrants from freight trains that they sometimes use to cross the country to get closer to the U.S. border. Immigration officers in Mexico also have been busing migrants to that country's southern border and flying some back to their countries.

That enforcement effort began after a visit from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Mexico City on December 28.

Mexican border states such as Coahuila partnered with Mexico's federal government. By January, members of Mexico's military and national guard were patrolling the banks of the Rio Grande. Officers filled buses with migrants and drove them away from Piedras Negras, which is on the Mexican side of the river across from Eagle Pass.

What is Texas doing?

Over in Eagle Pass, the Texas National Guard took over a city-owned park along the river. Texas has denied U.S. agents access to Shelby Park since January 10. It also installed additional razor wire and anti-climbing fencing in the area.

Border Patrol agents had previously used the park for monitoring and patrols, as well as to process migrants who made it across the river to U.S. soil. Migrants who are seeking asylum are released to await immigration court proceedings that can take years.

"What you have is this magnet," Mike Banks, Texas' border czar, said." You're basically saying, 'Cross the river right here. Get across and we'll process immediately and release you.' So again, that's a pull factor. So we've taken that pull factor away."

 

What else impacts the numbers?

The number of people trying to make the journey often increases when the weather is warmer in the U.S. and decreases during the colder months, including January.

Since 2021, crossings on the southern border increase by an average of 40% from January to March, according to federal data from the last three years.

Another factor last year was the end of COVID-19 restrictions in May. The use of a public health policy known as Title 42 allowed the Trump and Biden administrations to turn asylum-seekers back to Mexico, even if they were not from that country.

Crossings fell dramatically for a month after Title 42 ended and the Biden administration enforced new rules.

Under Title 42, migrants were denied asylum more than 2.8 million times starting in March 2020 on the ground of preventing the spread of COVID-19. When it expired, the Biden administration launched a policy to deny asylum to people who travel through another country, like Mexico, to the U.S., with few exceptions.

However, the numbers eventually started climbing until reaching a record high in December.

 

 

 

   

 

Research Officer Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Research Associate Asha Bharadwaj, both with the St. Louis Fed, found that the U.S. hosted the eighth largest number of refugees and asylum seekers in 2017, the most recent year for which data was available. Turkey hosted around 3.8 million, the largest number by far and more than two and a half times the number who stayed in the next largest host country (Germany). The authors noted that Turkey being a neighbor of Syria - which was the largest source nation of refugees - was a significant factor.

 

 

 

 

 

Historical Timeline History of Legal and Illegal Immigration to the United States

 

 

7.8 million illegal aliens took US Jobs in 2016
Pushback has business looking for an alternative.

Other Long-Term Economic Questions
1.
Will Inflation/Growth Tame the Deficit
2. Will Debt End Capitalism?
3.
Jobs Loss to AI Growth
4.
Dollar Privilege Continuation
5.
Disposition of Illegal Immigrants

Short-term Economic Questions
1.
Trump Keeping Economy In Good Shape?
2.
Will Trump Tax Cuts Work?
3.
Inflation Is Back, Is There Going To Be Trouble?
4.
Stock Market Too High?
5.
U.S. Headed for Recession?
 

Free Book of the Semester
Great Recession: Historical Perspective

 

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9. Tech Companies
Need Highly Skilled Foreigners


Winning of the H-1B Visa Lottery Boosts the Fortunes of Startups Overall, getting (approximately) one extra high-skilled  worker causes a 23% increase in the probability of a successful IPO within five years (a 1.5 percentage point increase in the baseline probability of 6.6%). That’s a huge effect. Remember, these startups have access to a labor pool of 160 million workers. For most firms, the next best worker can’t be appreciably different than the first-best worker. But for the 2000 or so tech-startups the authors examine, the difference between the world’s best and the US best is huge. Put differently on some margins  the US is starved for talent

 

 

 

3/11/20 Trump
using Title 42,
increased immediate expulsion of border asylum seekers.

5/4/23 Senate
bill to extent use of Title 42
dies

5/11/23 Biden
 after much political haggling,
ends
Title 42 asylum expulsions
House bill to increase boarder defense failed in the senate

 

 

 

Unauthorized and illegal Immigrants

Deportation Up Until Covid

New Data Show Migrants Were More Likely to
Be Released by Trump Than Biden

 

Illegal Immigration Population Flat

 

Illegal Immigrants

Illegal Immigrants enter or reside without legal authorization by
1)crossing borders without permission,
2) overstaying a visas,
3) violate the terms of their entry.
Undocumented, a synonym for illegal, is used by pro immigrant cohorts.

Recent Politics

Following a challenge by 16 Republican-led states, A Texas judge blocked Biden from granting legal status to an estimated half a million unauthorized immigrants married to American citizens

The policy would allow unauthorized immigrants and their children to apply for temporary work permits and deportation protections if they are 1) married to US citizens, have lived US at least 10 years, and pass background checks.
The coalition of red states said the policy incentivizes illegal immigration, and the judge agreed the states raised  legitimate questions about the authority of the executive branch to bypass Congress and set immigration policy.