3. Is US Manufacturing Really Declining?

A Free Trade No Tariff Primer

Affects of Undervalued Foreign Currencies
Meaning an Overvalued Dollar

1) Consumers happy with discounted foreign goods. a
2) Workers unhappy as foreign competition forces domestic
    producers to use technology and off-shoring to maintain profit.
3) Happy companies wanting to expand overseas.
4) Unhappy companies and unions as foreign competition
    lowers price which creates a battle for the new lower
    revenue.

See New Normal #2  Editor's Note: North American Free Trade Agreement was the first major free trade agreement.
Note 2: A president can raise tariffs against an individual country by 15 percent for 150 days but nothing like
the indefinite 45 percent Trump has threatened against China unless he invoked crisis authorities. Trade restrictions
aims at individual products are authorized by the WTO
and would slow the process.

5. NAFTA History

1993 North America Free Trade Agreement
Promised More Trade and Jobs

President Clinton's 1993 Speech made promises "It will create the world's largest trade zone and create 200,000 jobs in this country by 1995 alone." Global economy "...has enriched the lives of millions of Americans. But for too many those same winds of change have worn away at file basis of their security. For two decades, most people have worked harder for less."   "Every worker must receive the education and training he or she needs to reap the rewards of international competition rather than to bear its burdens." It didn't happen. The Trade Assistance Act is designed to help workers displaced by trade. It has demonstrated overall low effectiveness so far which is reflected in the controversy to reauthorize the program before the 112th Congress.

2) General Electric, Corporate and Caterpillar promises Jobs But!

NAFTA Job Result Were Not Good, Banking Expanded

Economic Priority Institute Reported the Negatives of NAFTA
1) By 2002 it had caused 700,000 jobs to Mexico. EPI i.org
2) It strengthened the ability of U.S. employers to force workers to accept lower wages, benefits.
3) The destructive effect of NAFTA on the Mexican agricultural and small business sectors dislocated several million Mexican workers and their families, and was a major cause in the dramatic increase in undocumented workers flowing into the U.S. labor market
4) Fourth, and ultimately most important, NAFTA was the template for rules of the emerging global economy, in which the benefits would flow to capital and the costs to labor

NAFTA Cumulative Lost Jobs Approaching 30 million in 2012

Although U.S. domestic exports to its NAFTA partners have increased dramatically—with real growth
 of 95.2% to Mexico and 41% to Canada—growth in imports of 195.3% from Mexico and 61.1% from
Canada overwhelmingly surpass export growth    Source

Mexico lost control of her banks as
 foreign control increased  from 1%
to over 70% and growth continued
low. Source

Editors Notes: Much of the job loss in American manufacturing is caused by the creative destruction of Technological Unemployment (85% of the 5.6 million jobs lost from 2000-2010). Expanding free trade for an advanced high salaried economy like the US almost always means a loss of domestic Middle Wage Jobs. Data indicates trade accounted for only 13% of mentioned job losses.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership will cost those without a college degree $1,800 annually  according to liberal think tank Economic Policy Institute. "The White House is making one last push for passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. However, expect growing imports from low-wage, less-developed countries, which nearly tripled from 2.9 percent of

GDP in 1989 to 8.4" percent in 2011, reduced the wages of the typical non-college educated worker in 2011 by “5.5 percent, or by roughly $1,800—for a full-time, full year worker earning the average wage for workers without a four-year college degree,” as shown by my colleague Josh Bivens. See
"The No Nonsense Guide To Globalization" by Wayne Ellwood

Global Trumpism from Mark Blyth  9/29/26

Education and Training provided byTrade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) failed to achieve meaningful results. Designed to help "...program participants obtain new jobs faster, ensuring they retain employment and earn wages comparable to their prior employment,  "In FY2011 there were over 196,000 TAA participants and only around 46,000 received Trade Readjustment Allowance (TRA).^"image source

Global Value Chains and the US Missing Exports  October 16th, 2017 in trade data, macroeconomics

Of course, Congress could always authorize the Treasury Department to authorize the Federal Reserve to monetize a certain amount of the Social Security and Medicare debt, which is essentially what Japan is doing (and seemingly getting away with it). I think we should all be grateful to the Japanese for being willing to undertake such a fascinating experiment in monetary and fiscal policy.

Finance Industry Growth

See Wiki and