Trump's New Political Era

1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs: Asia vs. Europe

4. Cultural Wars    

Return to Geopolitics 12/19/19     
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China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti
F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision

B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
    according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua franca is important

C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
    a. organization like UN, WTO ...
    b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
    world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance must be Improvement.
5. Reasons for China's success
    a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
    b. U.S. Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is China's first step.

E) Is China Backing off a bit as the World, especially the U.S. reacts,  

Europe's Lose of Geopolitical Importance
from Geopolitics Matters George Friedman 6/6/18

America is Not a European Country

1. Politics differ, world perceptions differ, self-perception differs

2. Founders distinguished between private and public by putting the public in control.
a. U.S. constitution creates a weak, indecisive central government designed to leave the people alone
b. A judge in Hawaii has power to stop President Trump's immigration travel ban.
c. Congress is more important than the President. Congressman only care about reelection,
    only listen to their constitutes, and are very independent.
d. Federal Government is not as important.
    Two oilmen made the U.S. the world's largest oil producer.
    No government policy, no plan, just the best innovative environment.
    America is run from many industrial economic control centers, not from Washington.

Center of U.S. 20th Century Geopolitics is Controlling the Pacific.

Two world wars were about control of the seas.
Pacific of most concern because Europe was balanced with no controlling hegemony.
When France fell in six weeks, Germany looked too strong, U.S. war efforts began.
A Cold war U.S. was everywhere and when the wall fell, Asia became the center of attention.
Now strategy determines locations of geopolitical interest. 

U.S. Asian Policy Unchanged

Clinton began a Korean policy: no military action, limit their nuclear program, prepare for a last resort war option

Bush began fighting China's mercantilism, Obama joined the game, Trump used trade to increase the stakes.
US not as trade vulnerable: Germany exports 50%, China 25%, U.S. 8% beyond NAFTA.
China will be stopped from controlling the South China Sea and moving into the Western Pacific.
U.S. bled for the Western Pacific, its building Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to control the Western Pacific.
 

Important Geopolitical Situations

1. China is not much of a military power, but she is an economic threat.
2. Afghanistan withdrawal negotiations with the Taliban are ongoing.
3. Iran now dominates Iraq, dominate Lebanon, has a significant role in Syria, and operates in Yemen.
    US helped engineer an alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey to counter Iran.
4. Poland has US troops. Rumania has a US reinforced air base. 
5. NATO was correctly described as an obsolete military alliance.
    It existed to stop a strong Soviet Union. Russia is a 3rd world nuclear power with a resource dependent economy.
    NATO has no usable military fighting divisions to deplored in Poland against Russian aggression.
 

 Consistent, Ruthless, Understandable 100 Year U.S.  Geopolitical Strategy
1. North America is an island, U.S. must control surrounding waters.
2. U.S. can not allow anyone to control the European Peninsula and the Russian mainland
    because together they have the technology and resources to threaten U.S. interests.
    When this strategy was in danger, the U.S. entered WW 1, WW 2 and then stayed to end the Cold War.
    When the 2014 Ukrainian events happened, Obama deployed American forces to Poland and
    Rumania and that deployment continued and has recently intensified.
3. This strategy now applies to  Asia where U.S. controls the sea and will  not allow a local hegemony.
4. Strategy is independent of Presidents. It is in America's DNA.
5. Today U.S. primary threats are in Asia and can easily be managed.
6. Russia is manageable because economy is resource price dependent.
    Allowing countries bordering Russia to join NATO and events in Ukraine made Russia aggressive.
    The U.S. and Russia each gave up something to create unstable buffer countries to keep the peace.
    If instability increases, the U.S. is ready to act, NATO is nowhere to be found.