A New Western Normality in the Making?
 Designed for iPhone's and Classroom Use 1/20/25

Teacher Lecture Notes or Handouts in color for handouts
I. Development of Illiberal Democracy
II. Forces Blowing-up Global Politics

Student Lecture Notes with extra spaces for notes
I. Development of Illiberal Democracy
II. Forces Blowing-up Global Politics

 

  

 

I. Development of Illiberal Democracy summarized from Francis Fukuyama: Democracy's Failure to Perform
     A. Causes
          1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S. foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
          2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
          3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance i.e. economic slowness, immigration, wealth accumulation
     B. Definitions, nominal
         1. States are a monopoly on a legitimate use of physical force.from Max Weber States are about Power!        
         2. Rule by Law: sovereignty sets the law i.e. China
         3. Rule of Law: sovereignty responsible to same laws as the governed. Laws limit power.
         4. Democratic Accountability requires free multiple political parties with guarantee substantive accounting and a
             government that serves the entire population, not just the elite.
    C. Modern Political System
         1. A modern miracle that generate tremendous power limited by the rule of law and is democratically accountable
         2. Patrimonial state: rulers own political system, resources and distribute gain production Who You Know
         3. Neo-Illiberal States: look like a democracy, limited representation, leaders follow the money
    D. U.S. Failures at State Building
         1. Focus: building a Liberal Democracy
         2. Required focus: moving from Patrimonial State to Modern Political System
             a. Iraq and Afghanistan: got the liberal democracy but did not move from a patriarchal to modern state
                 Both state moved to Oligarchy where a few wealthy people form a  Plutocracy.
                 Neither can protect citizens and provide services to much of the population.
             b. Ukraine: got a liberal democracy from the Orange Revolution of 2004-5, but could not keep it as a
                 second revolution needed to avoid a strong connection to Russia.
             c. India: Very democratic but can't progress to modern state as it can't fix serious problems
                 Elected strong leader but he to is failing.
             d. Greece: got a democracy in 1974 but developed into a Clientelism where every election brings a
                 new set of party connected bureaucratic. Strong unions kept jobs for previous bureaucrats.
                 Eventually, she had seven times the bureaucrats per person as did England.
                 Problem: Greece does not want to change.
 

I. Development of Illiberal Democracy  summarized from Francis Fukuyama: Democracy's Failure to Perform
     A. Causes

         1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S. foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars

         2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China

         3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance i.e. economic slowness, immigration, wealth accumulation
    
 B. Definitions, nominal

         1. States are a monopoly on a legitimate use of physical force.from Max Weber States are about Power! 
       
         2. Rule by Law: sovereignty sets the law i.e. China

         3. Rule of Law: sovereignty responsible to same laws as the governed. Laws limit power.

         4. Democratic Accountability requires free multiple political parties with guarantee substantive accounting and a
             government that serves the entire population, not just the elite.
   
C. Modern Political System

         1. A modern miracle that generate tremendous power limited by the rule of law and is democratically accountable

         2. Patrimonial state: rulers own political system, resources and distribute gain production Who You Know

         3. Neo-Illiberal States: look like a democracy, limited representation, leaders follow the money

 D. U.S. Failures at State Building

         1. Focus: building a Liberal Democracy

         2. Required focus: moving from Patrimonial State to Modern Political System

             a. Iraq and Afghanistan: got the liberal democracy but did not move from a patriarchal to modern state
                 Both state moved to Oligarchy where a few wealthy people form a  Plutocracy
                 Neither can protect citizens and provide services to much of the population.

             b. Ukraine: got a liberal democracy from the Orange Revolution of 2004-5, but could not keep it as a
                 second revolution needed to avoid a strong connection to Russia
.
             c. India: Very democratic but can't progress to modern state as it can't fix serious problems
                 Elected strong leader but he to is failing.

             d. Greece: got a democracy in 1974 but developed into a Clientelism where every election brings a
                 new set of party connected bureaucratic. Strong unions kept jobs for previous bureaucrats.
                 Eventually, she had seven times the bureaucrats per person as did England.
                 Problem: Greece does not want to change.

 
 

 

II. Three main forces are blowing up global politics 1/17/24 #4 Trump 2

Source  by

 

  

Summary from author/editor Walter Antoniotti      antonw@ix.netcom.co

A Trio of independent disruptions
 Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment leaders/institutions created disruptions.
America's 1990 dissatisfaction recently spread to Europe causing two years of volatile pubic fury.
This spread compounds to an unpredictable degree the possible disruption to Europe and Western Culture.

Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions contributed to these disruptions. 
This caused  effected groups to lash out in a tribal like response.
An end to a post WWII US led moderation is seem by some to be causing
1. Great power conflict returning to early Cold War levels
2  Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

All three disruptions could last years Axion reported here, here and here.
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate our disruptions.

Disruption modification related to Trump, and Brexit, power immigrants are difficult.
 1. No opposing stability force seems forthcoming
2. An aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptive forces.
3. AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing leader constitution.

Covid-19 adds to our current the deep doo-doo.

See

Mark Blyth Summarizes 30 years of Western Capitalism 6/20

Editor: True: Capitalism did what it was suppose to do and protected profit from foreign competition.
Union leaders protected their jobs with tow tire wage contracts.
Science and debt did much to improve wellbeing.
Politicians, median and economists avoided change to stay in office.

'America First' has won, by Robert Kagan at NYT.

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes, by the FT's Martin Wolf

 

 

II. Forces Blowing-up Global Politics

Source  by

Summary from author/editor Walter Antoniotti      antonw@ix.netcom.co

1. A Trio of independent disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment leaders/institutions created disruptions.

America's 1990 dissatisfaction recently spread to Europe causing two years of volatile pubic fury.
This spread compounds to an unpredictable degree the possible disruption to Europe and Western Culture.

2. Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions contributed to these disruptions. 

This caused  effected groups to lash out in a tribal like response.

3. An end to a post WWII US led moderation is seem by some to be causing

1. Great power conflict returning to early Cold War levels

2  Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

All three disruptions could last years Axion reported here, here and here.
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate our disruptions.

Disruption modification related to Trump, Brexit, AND THE power immigrants are increasing.

1. No opposing stability force seems forthcoming

2. An aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptive forces.

3. AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.

3. Climate change is increasing leader constitution.

Covid-19 adds to our current the deep doo-doo.

See

Mark Blyth Summarizes 30 years of Western Capitalism 6/20

Editor: True: Capitalism did what it was suppose to do and protected profit from foreign competition.
Union leaders protected their jobs with tow tire wage contrects.
Science and debt did much to improve wellbeing.
Politicians, median and economists avoided change to stay in office.

'America First' has won, by Robert Kagan at NYT.

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes, by the FT's Martin Wolf