Predictions

This is Not Good

Some are 50-50

Indicators Say No!

Source
 

John Mauldin Sees Problems

• Credit-Driven Train Crash (May 11)

David Rosenberg’s Stormy Outlook

Stormy Outlook for Bonds video

So Does Forbes

Listen To The Bond Markets: A Recession Is Just Round The Corner

Roubin Brunello see 2020 trouble

1. Fiscal-stimulus policies potential are unsustainable.

2. US economy is now overheating and inflation is also increasing in other key economies,

3. Trump administration’s trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others will almost certainly escalate, to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still.

5. Growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down –China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage or face a. hard landing and emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.

6. Europe will have slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening, trade frictions, populist polarized politics,. still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt

7. US and global equity markets are frothy. high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive  leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessiv

8. Once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting  as there are reduced market-making and warehousing activities by broker-dealers, excessive high-frequency/algorithmic trading and fixed-income instruments have become more concentrated in open-ended exchange-traded and dedicated credit funds.

9. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will increase closer to election..

10. Policy tools for addressing it will be sorely lacking by massive public debt, more unconventional monetary policies will be limited by bloated balance sheets and the lack of headroom to cut policy rates.

In the US specifically, lawmakers have

FED Model Predictions Still Low
 

Fed Assesses Risk of Yield Curve Inversion: An Update