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Rivals Play by
the Same Rules,
Preface |
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I.
The Russian View: American Lies, Betrayal of Russia?
Epilogue:
In examining the Geopolitical advantages and
disadvantages among nations, Related Sites
Understanding China of Today
a required foreign policy prima
10/11/19 editor
W
Antoniotti
return to
Geopolitics
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“It was the rise of
Athens and the fear that this
instilled in Sparta Of 16 Challenges to a World Hegemony Over Last 500 Years-16 Challenges-12 Major Wars Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap? 3 min video 1. US Rivalry With China Just Got Serious
2. Harvard's Thucydides 16 Case Files 30 second video
Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allisonvideo 1960 Economic and Political Analysis
This analysis was in many
economic textbooks and the CIA, President "Russiagate is this generation's WMD"
Rolling Stone's
Matt Taibbi posts an
emergency chapter A “Cyber-attack” on China – Despite encouraging signs in the US-China trade war, we’re watching for a possible US escalation against suspected Chinese hacking after revelations of a massive Beijing-sponsored infiltration of the US hotel chain Marriott. In coming days, the US may claim China has violated the cyber-espionage agreement Chinese President Xi Jinping made with ... Obama. An indictment of Chinese security service workers as the hackers would be a significant escalation in the broader US-China standoff over cyber-security. GZERO
Over the past yew
ears under Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, Disunity resulting from Brexit,
Italian discontent, A Possible Bigger Problem Loss of Exorbitant Dollar PrivilegeU.S. Russia, China, Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies
Index |
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U.S. Lies Betray Russia?
Blaming Conservatives Prelude: Bush 2 ignores Russia's support for the Iraq War and moves Russia from a rival to adversary. Putin rebuffs Obama's attempt to move Russia back to rival status. |
Putin Popularity and Oil Price Go Hand in Hand
Update: Russian Motivation Important Source: Ian Bremmer: What is Motivating Putin? Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs
Reacting to U.S. pushing NATO Eastward, Additions to missile defenses, Energy Diversification away from carbon Moving stuff to Europe, Not Russia from Capiar Fostering coup in Ukraine
Policy Benefits Policy Cost Failed to foster US interest Russian cyber crime can do much harm Western Banking System Policy Benefits Putin more popular Russians more likely to sacrifice after Putin power move in Syria Some benefits went to China Policy Cost Failed to foster US interest Russian cyber crime can do much harm Western Banking System 2 . Recommended Policy GuideSelf Interest guides policy Understanding Foe's Motivation maximizes success US Media, Intellectuals and Government won't understand Russia 3. Ukraine key to Putin's military supply chain Problems and US forcing expensive relocations is similar to Russia putting missiles in Cuba. 4. Russia is correct that the Golan Heights annexation shouldn't be recognized because it violates international law, Leonid Bershidsky writes for Bloomberg Opinion. But the same should apply to Crimea, too. There's no UN Security Council resolution about Crimea because Russia blocked attempts to pass one. The post-World War II rule against recognizing land grabs is perhaps the most important one in the current international order.
Russia and China are seeking closer cooperation but relationship which is based upon animosity toward the US is still limited by mutual suspicions and meager economic ties beyond oil. Russia doesn't even make China's top ten trade partners. GZERO Worldwide Threat Assessment
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A Concise Business View Eurasia Group's Dr. Ian Bremmer GZERO What China's Done Right 1. Maintained stability without Western expectation of needed political reform. 2. Building World Infrastructure helps them join US as a leading influential world power. 3. Technology Ability substantially replaced steeling technology due to government and private investment. What China's done wrong 1.High consumer and government sponsored debt, especially for inefficient government sponsored corporations which primary value is providing job.
2. Government control of economy means it owns blame for economic failures
like environmental problems
3. Lost low profile on trade growth as first Trump and now Europe, are
tighter trade controls and Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd 4/18 video See Latest Video from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18 Is China's President Xi Jinping under increased domestic pressure? 1. Recent Internet criticism from an academic has stayed on line for a week. His is very unusual though party leaders being on a vacation/retreat may be relevant. 2. Xi has more pressure than three months age. He under estimated Trump's strong stance and resolve regarding trade liberalization. Surprised by Europe's willingness to join US trade restrictions and Chinese Foreign Investment limitations. 3. He has been very aggressive when dealing with international questions. 4, The Cult of personality around Xi has received Internet questioning. Analysis: Trumps China Foreign Policy Positive: Trump has forced internal Chinese discussions concerning their pro-Chinese mercantilist policies.
However, the lack of an apparent trade war exit policy is troublesome.
Obama main success was involving China in the Paris environmental discussions. A future surprise may be US reaction to Chinese involvement close to U.S. boarders Where China Wants to Go 1. Unilateral Local Sphere of Influence with no U.S. interference. 2. Promenade Indispensable Economic Partner to much of world. 3. Lead Global Economic Reform See Trump’s Australian refugee dilemma Factchecking Trump on Australia refugees Trump's Treatment of Australia Understanding China under Xi Jinping Xi-pledges-$60-billion-in-financing-for-Africa Future1. Anti-corruption has spread across economic and political classes allowing key Xi to control important agencies.
2.
Success variables b. Develop manageable relations with other strong nations 3. Paramount Goal Maintaining party control is always first
In
the
next
month
or
so
there
is
likely
a
current
tariff
war
agreement
between
China
and
the
United
States.
Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping know its really the economy, stupid. The final quarter of 2018 saw their economies began to slow much more rapidly than they could politically tolerate. And the trade war was a big part of the slowdown. In 2017-18 China, domestic economic policy measures resulted in the Chinese private sector lowering investment resulting in plummeting growth. A fresh wave of fiscal and monetary policy interventions to re-stimulate growth resulted. Also, a series of policy corrections were instituted to rebuild private sector business confidence. But the trade further eroded business sentiment and politically, employment levels must remain high to absorb the 20 million annual new worker entrants . Party members know unemployment breeds social instability which in turn breeds political instability. Xi wants any deal. Trump took fright by the November Dow collapse concluding the Fed rate increases was a major cause as well as the end of an unnaturally long period of sustained economic growth. He also worked out that his trade war was having a negative effect on sentiment. To fix it he began publicly thugging the Chair of the Fed so that no further rate rises would occur. He signaled the re-constitution of a negotiating process fix the trade war as soon as face-savingly possible. His divided White House on what was an acceptable deal would be ignored because Trump wants a clear an economic glide-path to next year’s presidential election. Trump wants to do a large part in final round negotiation brinksmanship with his opposite number. Unfortunately the Chinese don’t do it that way. In the post-Deng period they will not risk a possible loss of face for their leader. For a high-profile summit everything must be signed in advance. From the Hanoi outcome we learned China would never allow the disgrace of no deal. The Mar-a-Lego Summit between Trump and Xi will work only if signed off in full by both capitals beforehand by vice premier Liu He and his American counterpart Bob Lighthizer. For Trump it that way or the highway.
Probability of Success China's New Leadership, Yukon Huang Old Before Rich  Five economic disruptive forces identified in by Bloomberg Economics in a New Economy Forum: climate change, populism, protectionism, digitization and automation will disrupt pathways to prosperity. Our Drivers and Disrupters Index measures countries according to traditional markers of success—workforce, investment and productivity. By these measures, China is a star performer. We also estimates how well economies will hold up in the face of massive disruptive forces that have gathered momentum in the past several years. China is particularly threatened—its coastal cities by floods, its exports by tariffs, its workers by robots. Only a handful of developing economies have ever joined the ranks of the wealthy, among them are the Tigers of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. For others, the bar is rapidly moving higher. |
IV.
Analyzing Chinese Investment
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These challenges associated with China’s Belt and Road are not limited to a particular region or type of infrastructure project. A survey of 10 lesser-known Chinese projects across the globe shows that all feature three or more of these challenges. " |
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Contemporary China-Japan Relations:
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V. Trump's Trade Policy Update
Trump Leaves Xi No Room to Make a Trade Deal
Kevin
Rudd
video
See
Latest Video from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18
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SummaryTrump trade negotiators use extremely difficult tactics for deal making with China. Until tactics change, there is little chance of Trump reaching his goals.A crucial fact about modern China is as Xi adds to his power, economic and diplomatic success related to a prosperous future with boundless new opportunities became tied to his Cult of Personality. Humiliating inflicted by a Western power would be a disaster. Xi must keep China’s economy growing, generating jobs and raising incomes. Some might believe this should encourage a trade agreement as U.S. tariffs slow economic activity. Eleven countries signed a Comprehensive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), defying the barely-disguised efforts by the Trump administration to kill the treaty. A vanguard of Japan, Singapore, Mexico, Australia, Canada and New Zealand activated the treaty over the weekend, ripping down barriers to trade in almost all goods. It eliminates 18,000 tariffs and slashes others in stages over coming years.Latest News: 5/10/19 T rump is losing the fight to ban Huawei from global networks. Close allies are ignoring the U.S. president’s calls to blacklist the Chinese company from their 5G plans. Not a single European nation, not even the U.K., has fallen in line. See Daniel Gros: This is not a trade war, it is a struggle for technological and geo-strategic dominance5/10/19 Is it possible to overturn the most damaging aspects of Chinese mercantilism.?Recently the Xi administration recalibrated policy when private businesses became alarmed by the economy's statist turn and sharply curtailed job-creating investments. These companies got tax cuts and other incentives to resume spending. Disengaging from China would compound the hurt from tariffs. Bloomberg app: It's available for iOS and Android.Want more news about China? Sign up for our new Next China newsletter, a weekly dispatch on where China stands now and where it's going next.
Editor's Note: 5/16/19
Politics can influence both sides. Stay tuned!
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China's Reaction:
A
Lower Yuan
Editor's Note:
Devaluation is the traditional method of enhancing trade. Germany uses it as a
weak Euro helps her
economy. A few shafts of light on trade offensive on 5/15/19 Wednesday. He said negotiators are also close to reaching a deal with Canada and Mexico that would lift steel and aluminum tariffs the administration imposed a year ago. He would delay for six months a decision on imposing import duties on foreign cars and parts, avoiding a move the auto industry has said would be crippling. Trump administration does not want to wind down its trade fights any time soon. Trump declared a national emergency to protect American communications networks from espionage by foreign suppliers. Then reports stated the Commerce Department effectively banned the sale of American tech to the company.
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Editor's Note:
Totalitarian Governments Seems to Create Conservatives See Trading Blows: The US-China Trade video Pacific Trade Deal
VI. Japan Is Becoming a Player Politics & Policy Japan, a Sleeping Giant of Global Affairs, Is Waking Up Bloomberg.com
Japan has drastically altered global history with three
modern era profound international shifts. 3. Japan’s postwar leaders responded to American control by outsourcing foreign policy and security to the U.S.
Now China is challenging Tokyo’s control of the Senkaku
Islands and is menacing Taiwan, which shields Japan’s southern flank.
Recently the US has restored a more normal rhythm to
U.S.-Japanese relations,
Japan has responded by
fostering a
“free and open
Indo-Pacific” by sponsoring
Also, Tokyo and Washington work to secure supply chains and
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