State of the United States Pandemic

Index: Latest News  1. June 12 Summary  2. Analyzing Inconsistent Data    3. A Look at Deep Do-Do   

4. Does the Virus Burn Itself Out?   5. Editorial   Please Share 6/27/20

 

 

Latest News: Back to Square One

See Arlamist vs. Do-nothings  and our Editorial

 

Part 1 by Peter Zeihan June 12, 2020  
Summary by Walter Antoniotti   Please Share!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


See COVID-19 Now a Political Issue

 

 

To March or Not to March

See Next World Epicenter

 

To Close or Not to Close 

 

See 6/10/20 Update

Part 2 Analyzing Inconsistent Data

"Something is rotten in ..."  US Medicine

CDC finally attempted to estimate the death rate for COVID-19.
Under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26% or 2.6 in 1,000.
Non-nursing home fatality rate is 0.13% or 1.3 in 1,000. source
People Under 50 it is 1 in 5,000
People With symptoms 1 in 6,725
Almost all who die have underlying conditions.
Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident.

Will Deaths and Hospitalizations Follow and Be Proportional to Cases?

Medicare COVID-19 Payouts               worldometers
Medicare patients with
Pneumonia-$5,000.
COVID-19 pneumonia- $13,000
COVID-19 with ventilator-up to $39,000		 Cases/
Million  		Deaths/
Million
Only laboratory-confirmed CV-19 diagnoses reported
California
Minnesota		 3,624
5,198		 125
227
All  presumed possibly associated with CV-19 reported allowed under CDC guidelines
Two larger states
 Massachusetts
New York            		5,186
20,666		 1,087
1,580

 

 In Texas, More Cases Means More Hospitalizations

If This Is Not the Second Waive,
US Could Be in Deep Do-Do

See   2nd_Waive Please share!
 

Many in England Feel Covid-19 is Overhyped

Deaths in 2017 Deaths from Covid-19 Preconditions        

 US Deaths     5 of Total

1. Heart 647,457 = 23.5%

2. Cancer 599,108 = 21.3%

3. Unintentional injuries 169,936 = 6%

5. Stroke, cerebrovascular  146,383 = 5.2%

 Editor: When people in 2020 die with these preconditions, Covid-19 may or may not be classified as cause of death, as  reporting varies by country, state, hospital and morgue. This English study compared deaths in 1999-2000 with this CV year and found the totals are about equal.
 

Source In Proportion

Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt postulated that the virus burns out when it has infected 15-20% of the population.

 

3. A Look at Deep Do-Do

Will CV Be Our Top Virus Killer? return to top    Please Share

Virus          Deaths    ÷   P (m)  =  (R % died)   Deaths/Million     Will History Repeat
                                                                                                                      R x 330,000,000

Hong Kong Flu
 1968-70     100,000    ÷   198   = 0.000505             505                          166,000          3rd
   
Asian flu
1957-58      116,000   ÷   172   = 0.00674               674                          223,000          2nd

Spanish Flu
 1918-19      675,000   ÷   103   =  0.00655             6,500                     2,162,000          1st

COVID-19
2020           121,000        330   = 0.00036               367 and rising
   

4. Does COVID-19 Burn Itself Out

  
   
 

 

  
 

Editorial

Much of the valuable conversation by respected specialists on Twitter
is not covered by any of the US media.
As with all communication, prejudice for is as much of a problem as prejudice against.
 It causes people to be directed toward their beliefs, They see little else.

CNN, Fox, and the Networks are all chasing advertising dollars.
What makes headlines and requires little analysis is best.
Even discussions on Bloomberg concerning Covid-19
are among people who really know little about Covid-19.

Total Confirmed Virus Cases is of little value.
Most news reports lead with it.
Normalizing total cases for population help a little,
but other measures are much more important.

Hospitalizations are far more important
though they are less so now because treatment is better.

There is no treatment for death!
But all deaths are not created equal.
But medical doctors will not hear of this.
A young person in the prime of life equals any person,
regardless of age and health. But,
some people measure days life days lost to COVID-19.
To them, young deaths means more days lost.

My problem is these contrasting ideas are not discussed.
Could CV burn itself out is not watched for or discussed.
How much worse is CV than the seasonal flew.
especially given the inconsistent poor data.